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Adrian Waller v Mohamed Elshorbagy (Tue 02 Apr 2019)

Match won by Adrian Waller. Result: 11-7,11-4.

Starting level for Adrian Waller: 41,880, level confidence: 48%.
Starting level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 65,931, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Mohamed Elshorbagy to win as he is currently playing 57% better than Adrian Waller.

Adrian Waller won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 100% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adrian Waller played 100% better than Mohamed Elshorbagy in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Adrian Waller actually played at a level of 74,313 and Mohamed Elshorbagy at a level of 37,156. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 77% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 58% and 58% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 41% and 41% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adrian Waller changes to +41% and Mohamed Elshorbagy changes to -23%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adrian Waller becomes +7.4% and for Mohamed Elshorbagy becomes -4.3%.

Given Adrian Waller's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 1.9% has been applied to his level change.

Given Mohamed Elshorbagy's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 23% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 85% for 'Premier League' so the adjustment for Adrian Waller is +6.1% and for Mohamed Elshorbagy is -2.9%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Adrian Waller is limited to +5.2% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adrian Waller: 69%, Mohamed Elshorbagy: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adrian Waller: 39%, Mohamed Elshorbagy: 48%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Adrian Waller: 44,004, level confidence: 39%.
Final level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 63,983, level confidence: 48%.