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Joel Makin v Saurav Ghosal (Tue 02 Apr 2019)

Match won by Joel Makin. Result: 11-5,11-6.

Starting level for Joel Makin: 52,884, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Saurav Ghosal: 50,299, level confidence: 90%. Set manually.
Joel Makin to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Saurav Ghosal.

Joel Makin won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 100% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joel Makin played 100% better than Saurav Ghosal in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Joel Makin actually played at a level of 72,938 and Saurav Ghosal at a level of 36,469. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 38% to match this result.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 27% and 27% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joel Makin changes to +27% and Saurav Ghosal changes to -22%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joel Makin becomes +5% and for Saurav Ghosal becomes -4.4%.

Given Joel Makin's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 12% has been applied to his level change.

Given Saurav Ghosal's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 9.8% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 85% for 'Premier League' so the adjustment for Joel Makin is +3.8% and for Saurav Ghosal is -3.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joel Makin: 89%, Saurav Ghosal: 95%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joel Makin: 64%, Saurav Ghosal: 69%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Joel Makin: 54,830, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Saurav Ghosal: 48,608, level confidence: 69%.