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Tim Vail v Greg Lobban (Tue 19 Mar 2019)

Match won by Greg Lobban. Result: 8-11,3-11.

Starting level for Tim Vail: 21,172, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Greg Lobban: 36,790, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Greg Lobban to win as he is currently playing 74% better than Tim Vail.

Greg Lobban won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 100% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Greg Lobban played 100% better than Tim Vail in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Greg Lobban actually played at a level of 39,469 and Tim Vail at a level of 19,735. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.3% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.5% and 5.5% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 4.1% and 4.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Greg Lobban changes to +4.1% and Tim Vail changes to -4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Greg Lobban becomes +1.4% and for Tim Vail becomes -1.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 85% for 'Premier League' so the adjustment for Greg Lobban is +1.2% and for Tim Vail is -1.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Greg Lobban: 88%, Tim Vail: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Greg Lobban: 82%, Tim Vail: 83%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tim Vail: 20,873, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Greg Lobban: 37,161, level confidence: 82%.