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Declan James v Jan Van Den Herrewegen (Tue 19 Mar 2019)

Match won by Declan James. Result: 11-4,8-11,15-13.

Starting level for Declan James: 40,402, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 28,753, level confidence: 69%.
Declan James to win as he is currently playing 41% better than Jan Van Den Herrewegen.

Declan James won 67% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 20%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Declan James played 21% better than Jan Van Den Herrewegen in this match.

As Declan James has played below his allowed range at 36,013, his level reduction is 3.8% before damping. On the assumption that Declan James would normally have been playing at level 38,961 (based on typical behaviour), Jan Van Den Herrewegen played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.2% and 5% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 2.4% and 3.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Declan James changes to -2.4% and Jan Van Den Herrewegen changes to +3.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Declan James becomes -0.9% and for Jan Van Den Herrewegen becomes +1.3%.

Given Declan James's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0.4% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 85% for 'Premier League' so the adjustment for Declan James is -0.8% and for Jan Van Den Herrewegen is +1.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Declan James: 82%, Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Declan James: 76%, Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Declan James: 40,037, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 29,036, level confidence: 77%.