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Saurav Ghosal v Iker Pajares Bernabeu (Tue 19 Mar 2019)

Match won by Saurav Ghosal. Result: 11-5,11-9.

Starting level for Saurav Ghosal: 49,613, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 35,556, level confidence: 62%.
Saurav Ghosal to win as he is currently playing 40% better than Iker Pajares Bernabeu.

Saurav Ghosal won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Saurav Ghosal played 56% better than Iker Pajares Bernabeu in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Saurav Ghosal actually played at a level of 52,532 and Iker Pajares Bernabeu at a level of 33,580. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.9% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5% and 5% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 3.7% and 3.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Saurav Ghosal changes to +3.4% and Iker Pajares Bernabeu changes to -3.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Saurav Ghosal becomes +1.2% and for Iker Pajares Bernabeu becomes -1.3%.

Given Saurav Ghosal's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 9.2% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 85% for 'Premier League' so the adjustment for Saurav Ghosal is +0.9% and for Iker Pajares Bernabeu is -1.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Saurav Ghosal: 82%, Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Saurav Ghosal: 78%, Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Saurav Ghosal: 49,994, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 35,110, level confidence: 75%.