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Simon Rösner v Daryl Selby (Tue 05 Mar 2019)

Match won by Daryl Selby. Result: 12-10,5-11,11-13.

Starting level for Simon Rösner: 55,270, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Daryl Selby: 38,056, level confidence: 53%.
Simon Rösner to win as he is currently playing 45% better than Daryl Selby.

Daryl Selby won 67% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 20%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daryl Selby played 21% better than Simon Rösner in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Daryl Selby actually played at a level of 50,389 and Simon Rösner at a level of 41,742. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 32% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 26% and 26% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 19% and 19% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Daryl Selby changes to +19% and Simon Rösner changes to -15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Daryl Selby becomes +4% and for Simon Rösner becomes -3.2%.

Given Simon Rösner's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 14% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 85% for 'Premier League' so the adjustment for Daryl Selby is +3.4% and for Simon Rösner is -2.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daryl Selby: 73%, Simon Rösner: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daryl Selby: 55%, Simon Rösner: 61%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Simon Rösner: 53,920, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Daryl Selby: 39,303, level confidence: 55%.