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Joel Makin v Tom Ford (Tue 05 Mar 2019)

Match won by Joel Makin. Result: 8-11,11-8,11-1.

Starting level for Joel Makin: 50,185, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tom Ford: 20,399, level confidence: 65%.
Joel Makin to win as he is currently playing 146% better than Tom Ford.

Joel Makin won 67% of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 20%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joel Makin played 35% better than Tom Ford in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Joel Makin was taking it easy by anything up to 18%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 32,612 and 50,185 without affecting his level.

As Joel Makin has played below his allowed range at 29,968, his level reduction is 8.8% before damping. On the assumption that Joel Makin would normally have been playing at level 41,068 (based on typical behaviour), Tom Ford played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 22%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.5% and 14% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 4.1% and 10% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joel Makin changes to -3.6% and Tom Ford changes to +10%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joel Makin becomes -1.2% and for Tom Ford becomes +2.7%.

Given Joel Makin's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 9.7% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 85% for 'Premier League' so the adjustment for Joel Makin is -0.9% and for Tom Ford is +2.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joel Makin: 86%, Tom Ford: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joel Makin: 64%, Tom Ford: 60%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Joel Makin: 49,639, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Tom Ford: 20,844, level confidence: 60%.