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Adam Auckland v Daniel Mekbib (Tue 05 Mar 2019)

Match won by Daniel Mekbib. Result: 9-11,6-11.

Starting level for Adam Auckland: 18,574, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Daniel Mekbib: 27,422, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Daniel Mekbib to win as he is currently playing 48% better than Adam Auckland.

Daniel Mekbib won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 47% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daniel Mekbib played 49% better than Adam Auckland in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Daniel Mekbib actually played at a level of 27,587 and Adam Auckland at a level of 18,463. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.6% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.5% and 0.5% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 0.4% and 0.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Daniel Mekbib changes to +0.3% and Adam Auckland changes to -0.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Daniel Mekbib becomes +0.1% and for Adam Auckland becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 85% for 'Premier League' so the adjustment for Daniel Mekbib is 0% and for Adam Auckland is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daniel Mekbib: 90%, Adam Auckland: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daniel Mekbib: 89%, Adam Auckland: 86%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Adam Auckland: 18,521, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Daniel Mekbib: 27,414, level confidence: 89%.