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Joshua Masters v Greg Lobban (Tue 05 Feb 2019)

Match won by Greg Lobban. Result: 5-11,6-11.

Starting level for Joshua Masters: 30,281, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Greg Lobban: 37,562, level confidence: 65%.
Greg Lobban to win as he is currently playing 24% better than Joshua Masters.

Greg Lobban won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 100% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Greg Lobban played 100% better than Joshua Masters in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Greg Lobban actually played at a level of 47,695 and Joshua Masters at a level of 23,848. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 27% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 24% and 24% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 17% and 17% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Greg Lobban changes to +17% and Joshua Masters changes to -17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Greg Lobban becomes +3.8% and for Joshua Masters becomes -3.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 85% for 'Premier League' so the adjustment for Greg Lobban is +3.2% and for Joshua Masters is -3.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Greg Lobban: 81%, Joshua Masters: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Greg Lobban: 64%, Joshua Masters: 65%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Joshua Masters: 29,301, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Greg Lobban: 38,707, level confidence: 64%.