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Edmon Lopez Moller v Daryl Selby (Tue 05 Feb 2019)

Match won by Daryl Selby. Result: 6-11,11-3,10-12.

Starting level for Edmon Lopez Moller: 28,289, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Daryl Selby: 41,913, level confidence: 55%.
Daryl Selby to win as he is currently playing 48% better than Edmon Lopez Moller.

Daryl Selby won 67% of the games and 49% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 20%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 4% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daryl Selby played 8% better than Edmon Lopez Moller in this match.

As Daryl Selby has played below his allowed range at 34,050, his level reduction is 11% before damping. On the assumption that Daryl Selby would normally have been playing at level 39,995 (based on typical behaviour), Edmon Lopez Moller played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 14%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.2% and 12% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 6.8% and 8.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Daryl Selby changes to -6.8% and Edmon Lopez Moller changes to +7.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Daryl Selby becomes -1.9% and for Edmon Lopez Moller becomes +2.2%.

Given Daryl Selby's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 1.9% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 85% for 'Premier League' so the adjustment for Daryl Selby is -1.5% and for Edmon Lopez Moller is +1.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daryl Selby: 74%, Edmon Lopez Moller: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daryl Selby: 63%, Edmon Lopez Moller: 66%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Edmon Lopez Moller: 28,768, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Daryl Selby: 41,214, level confidence: 63%.