James Willstrop v Declan James (Tue 05 Feb 2019)
Match won by James Willstrop. Result: 11-9,11-4.
Starting level for
James Willstrop:
41,834, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Declan James:
38,405, level confidence: 57%.
James Willstrop to win as he is currently playing
9% better than Declan James.
James Willstrop won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 69% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Willstrop played
69% better than Declan James in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Willstrop actually played at a level of
52,143 and Declan James at a level of
30,812. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 25% to match this result.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 17% and 17% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Willstrop changes to +13% and Declan James changes to -17%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Willstrop becomes +2.9% and for Declan James becomes -3.7%.
Given James Willstrop's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 1.8% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 85% for 'Premier League' so the adjustment for James Willstrop is +2.4% and for Declan James is -3.1%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Willstrop: 88%, Declan James: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Willstrop: 71%, Declan James: 61%.
A final adjustment of +0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for James Willstrop:
42,772, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Declan James:
37,581, level confidence: 61%.