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George Parker v Borja Golan (Tue 08 Jan 2019)

Match won by George Parker. Result: 11-9,11-4.

Starting level for George Parker: 39,892, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Borja Golan: 43,482, level confidence: 56%.
Borja Golan to win as he is currently playing 9% better than George Parker.

George Parker won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 69% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that George Parker played 69% better than Borja Golan in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like George Parker actually played at a level of 54,180 and Borja Golan at a level of 32,015. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 36% to match this result.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 25% and 25% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for George Parker changes to +20% and Borja Golan changes to -25%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for George Parker becomes +4.2% and for Borja Golan becomes -4.9%.

Given Borja Golan's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 3.4% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 85% for 'Premier League' so the adjustment for George Parker is +3.5% and for Borja Golan is -4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. George Parker: 83%, Borja Golan: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. George Parker: 61%, Borja Golan: 55%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for George Parker: 41,238, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Borja Golan: 41,762, level confidence: 55%.