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Daryl Selby v Mohamed Elshorbagy (Tue 08 Jan 2019)

Match won by Mohamed Elshorbagy. Result: 10-12,11-2,3-11.

Starting level for Daryl Selby: 41,759, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 67,339, level confidence: 55%.
Mohamed Elshorbagy to win as he is currently playing 61% better than Daryl Selby.

Mohamed Elshorbagy won 67% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 20%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 4% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Elshorbagy played 12% better than Daryl Selby in this match.

As Mohamed Elshorbagy has played below his allowed range at 52,296, his level reduction is 12% before damping. On the assumption that Mohamed Elshorbagy would normally have been playing at level 63,038 (based on typical behaviour), Daryl Selby played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 16%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.1% and 12% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 6.8% and 9.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy changes to -6.8% and Daryl Selby changes to +8.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy becomes -1.7% and for Daryl Selby becomes +2.1%.

Given Mohamed Elshorbagy's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 25% has been applied to his level change.

Given Daryl Selby's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 1.7% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 85% for 'Premier League' so the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy is -1.2% and for Daryl Selby is +1.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 74%, Daryl Selby: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 62%, Daryl Selby: 65%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Daryl Selby: 42,437, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 66,466, level confidence: 62%.