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Todd Harrity v Patrick Rooney (Tue 08 Jan 2019)

Match won by Todd Harrity. Result: 13-11,11-9.

Starting level for Todd Harrity: 29,672, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Patrick Rooney: 29,235, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Todd Harrity to win as he is currently playing 1% better than Patrick Rooney.

Todd Harrity won all of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 20% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Todd Harrity played 32% better than Patrick Rooney in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Todd Harrity actually played at a level of 33,781 and Patrick Rooney at a level of 25,679. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 10.1% and 10.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Todd Harrity changes to +10.1% and Patrick Rooney changes to -9.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Todd Harrity becomes +2.6% and for Patrick Rooney becomes -2.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 85% for 'Premier League' so the adjustment for Todd Harrity is +2.2% and for Patrick Rooney is -2.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Todd Harrity: 81%, Patrick Rooney: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Todd Harrity: 71%, Patrick Rooney: 74%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Todd Harrity: 30,278, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Patrick Rooney: 28,607, level confidence: 74%.