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Lap Man Au v Paul Gonzalez (Mon 31 Dec 2018)

Match won by Lap Man Au. Result: 11-9,11-5,11-3.

Starting level for Lap Man Au: 5,767, level confidence: 11%.
Starting level for Paul Gonzalez: 6,667, level confidence: 62%.
Paul Gonzalez to win as he is currently playing 16% better than Lap Man Au.

Lap Man Au won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lap Man Au played 94% better than Paul Gonzalez in this match.

No results for Lap Man Au for more than 10 months before this junior event (British Junior Open) so assume an estimated 5% increase since then.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Lap Man Au actually played at a level of 9,061 and Paul Gonzalez at a level of 4,450. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 50% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lap Man Au changes to +46% and Paul Gonzalez changes to -5.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lap Man Au becomes +12.1% and for Paul Gonzalez becomes -2.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'British Junior Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Lap Man Au is limited to +9.3% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lap Man Au: 32%, Paul Gonzalez: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lap Man Au: 21%, Paul Gonzalez: 53%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Lap Man Au: 6,628, level confidence: 21%.
Final level for Paul Gonzalez: 6,535, level confidence: 53%.