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Paul Gonzalez v Billy Miles (Sun 30 Dec 2018)

Match won by Paul Gonzalez. Result: 11-5,11-6,13-11.

Starting level for Paul Gonzalez: 6,375, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for Billy Miles: 6,064, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Paul Gonzalez to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Billy Miles.

Paul Gonzalez won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 59% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Gonzalez played 58% better than Billy Miles in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Gonzalez actually played at a level of 7,809 and Billy Miles at a level of 4,950. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 22% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Gonzalez changes to +22% and Billy Miles changes to -17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Gonzalez becomes +6.5% and for Billy Miles becomes -5.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'British Junior Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Gonzalez: 77%, Billy Miles: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Gonzalez: 63%, Billy Miles: 70%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Gonzalez: 6,806, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Billy Miles: 5,770, level confidence: 70%.