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Fredrik Johnson v Pavel Mach (Sat 27 Apr 2019)

Match won by Fredrik Johnson. Result: 11-3,11-3,11-2.

Starting level for Fredrik Johnson: 11,514, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Pavel Mach: 1,410, level confidence: 67%.
Fredrik Johnson to win as he is currently playing 717% better than Pavel Mach.

Fredrik Johnson won all of the games and 80% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 313% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Fredrik Johnson played 313% better than Pavel Mach in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Fredrik Johnson was taking it easy by anything up to 55%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 2,350 and 11,514 without affecting his level.

In this case, Fredrik Johnson played at level 5,816 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Pavel Mach is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Fredrik Johnson: 87%, Pavel Mach: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Fredrik Johnson: 62%, Pavel Mach: 58%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Fredrik Johnson: 11,543, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Pavel Mach: 1,414, level confidence: 58%.