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Fredrik Johnson v Peter Frost H?Rlyck (Fri 26 Apr 2019)

Match won by Fredrik Johnson. Result: 11-1,11-4,11-4.

Starting level for Fredrik Johnson: 11,472, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Peter Frost H?Rlyck: 2,610, level confidence: 58%.
Fredrik Johnson to win as he is currently playing 340% better than Peter Frost H?Rlyck.

Fredrik Johnson won all of the games and 79% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 267% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Fredrik Johnson played 267% better than Peter Frost H?Rlyck in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Fredrik Johnson was taking it easy by anything up to 38%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 4,448 and 11,472 without affecting his level.

In this case, Fredrik Johnson played at level 9,570 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Peter Frost H?Rlyck is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Fredrik Johnson: 83%, Peter Frost H?Rlyck: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Fredrik Johnson: 76%, Peter Frost H?Rlyck: 69%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Fredrik Johnson: 11,501, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Peter Frost H?Rlyck: 2,617, level confidence: 69%.