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Augusto Ortigosa v Paul Gonzalez (Sat 20 Apr 2019)

Match won by Augusto Ortigosa. Result: 11-4,6-11,11-5,11-5.

Starting level for Augusto Ortigosa: 11,417, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Starting level for Paul Gonzalez: 9,249, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Augusto Ortigosa to win as he is currently playing 23% better than Paul Gonzalez.

Augusto Ortigosa won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 56% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Augusto Ortigosa played 35% better than Paul Gonzalez in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Augusto Ortigosa actually played at a level of 11,950 and Paul Gonzalez at a level of 8,837. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.7% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Augusto Ortigosa changes to +3.6% and Paul Gonzalez changes to -4.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Augusto Ortigosa becomes +1.6% and for Paul Gonzalez becomes -1.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'European Team Championships 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Augusto Ortigosa: 93%, Paul Gonzalez: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Augusto Ortigosa: 89%, Paul Gonzalez: 82%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Augusto Ortigosa: 11,581, level confidence: 89%.
Final level for Paul Gonzalez: 9,069, level confidence: 82%.