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Paul Gonzalez v Thimi Christiaens (Fri 10 May 2019)

Match won by Paul Gonzalez. Result: 11-7,11-4,11-4.

Starting level for Paul Gonzalez: 8,794, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for Thimi Christiaens: 10,336, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Thimi Christiaens to win as he is currently playing 18% better than Paul Gonzalez.

Paul Gonzalez won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Gonzalez played 120% better than Thimi Christiaens in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Gonzalez actually played at a level of 14,141 and Thimi Christiaens at a level of 6,428. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 61% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Gonzalez changes to +55% and Thimi Christiaens changes to -43%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Gonzalez becomes +12.8% and for Thimi Christiaens becomes -10%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'U15 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Paul Gonzalez is limited to +8.3% and Thimi Christiaens is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Gonzalez: 79%, Thimi Christiaens: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Gonzalez: 49%, Thimi Christiaens: 53%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Gonzalez: 9,525, level confidence: 49%.
Final level for Thimi Christiaens: 9,854, level confidence: 53%.