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Paul Gonzalez v Neo Friberg (Thu 09 May 2019)

Match won by Paul Gonzalez. Result: 11-9,11-9,8-11,11-4.

Starting level for Paul Gonzalez: 8,762, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for Neo Friberg: 3,248, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Paul Gonzalez to win as he is currently playing 170% better than Neo Friberg.

Paul Gonzalez won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 24% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Gonzalez played 25% better than Neo Friberg in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Paul Gonzalez was taking it easy by anything up to 21%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 5,470 and 8,762 without affecting his level.

As Paul Gonzalez has played below his allowed range at 4,708, his level reduction is 16% before damping. On the assumption that Paul Gonzalez would normally have been playing at level 6,923 (based on typical behaviour), Neo Friberg played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 31%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.6% and 18% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Gonzalez changes to -7.9% and Neo Friberg changes to +18%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Gonzalez becomes -2.8% and for Neo Friberg becomes +6.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'U15 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Gonzalez: 91%, Neo Friberg: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Gonzalez: 62%, Neo Friberg: 57%.

A final adjustment of +0.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Gonzalez: 8,642, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Neo Friberg: 3,462, level confidence: 57%.