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Mohamed Abouelghar v Tarek Momen (Thu 13 Jun 2019)

Match won by Mohamed Abouelghar. Result: 9-11,11-5,11-8.

Starting level for Mohamed Abouelghar: 59,219, level confidence: 49%.
Starting level for Tarek Momen: 64,696, level confidence: 91%. Set manually.
Tarek Momen to win as he is currently playing 9% better than Mohamed Abouelghar.

Mohamed Abouelghar won 67% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 20%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Abouelghar played 25% better than Tarek Momen in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mohamed Abouelghar actually played at a level of 69,087 and Tarek Momen at a level of 55,455. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 12% and 12% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Abouelghar changes to +12% and Tarek Momen changes to -6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Abouelghar becomes +2.6% and for Tarek Momen becomes -1.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Tour Finals' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Abouelghar: 70%, Tarek Momen: 96%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Abouelghar: 60%, Tarek Momen: 82%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mohamed Abouelghar: 60,687, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Tarek Momen: 63,815, level confidence: 82%.