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Karim Abdel Gawad v Ali Farag (Tue 11 Jun 2019)

Match won by Karim Abdel Gawad. Result: 11-9,11-8.

Starting level for Karim Abdel Gawad: 61,238, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Ali Farag: 75,886, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Ali Farag to win as he is currently playing 24% better than Karim Abdel Gawad.

Karim Abdel Gawad won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Karim Abdel Gawad played 38% better than Ali Farag in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Karim Abdel Gawad actually played at a level of 80,039 and Ali Farag at a level of 58,060. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 31% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 27% and 27% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 20% and 20% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Karim Abdel Gawad changes to +20% and Ali Farag changes to -15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Karim Abdel Gawad becomes +3.8% and for Ali Farag becomes -3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Tour Finals' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Karim Abdel Gawad: 81%, Ali Farag: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Karim Abdel Gawad: 62%, Ali Farag: 70%.

A final adjustment of +0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Karim Abdel Gawad: 63,519, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Ali Farag: 74,475, level confidence: 70%.