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Ali Farag v Mohamed Abouelghar (Mon 10 Jun 2019)

Match won by Ali Farag. Result: 12-10,11-9.

Starting level for Ali Farag: 75,419, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mohamed Abouelghar: 53,304, level confidence: 63%.
Ali Farag to win as he is currently playing 41% better than Mohamed Abouelghar.

Ali Farag won all of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ali Farag played 32% better than Mohamed Abouelghar in this match.

In this case, Ali Farag played at level 71,557 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Ali Farag would normally have been playing at level 72,633 (based on typical behaviour), Mohamed Abouelghar played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.5%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.3% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ali Farag changes to 0% and Mohamed Abouelghar changes to +0.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ali Farag becomes 0% and for Mohamed Abouelghar becomes +0.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Tour Finals' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ali Farag: 86%, Mohamed Abouelghar: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ali Farag: 83%, Mohamed Abouelghar: 77%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ali Farag: 75,302, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Mohamed Abouelghar: 53,774, level confidence: 77%.