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Rex Hedrick v Evan Williams (Sun 09 Jun 2019)

Match won by Rex Hedrick. Result: 7-11,11-6,12-10,11-7.

Starting level for Rex Hedrick: 34,103, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Evan Williams: 26,151, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Rex Hedrick to win as he is currently playing 30% better than Evan Williams.

Rex Hedrick won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rex Hedrick played 24% better than Evan Williams in this match.

As Rex Hedrick has played below his allowed range at 32,434, his level reduction is 0.4% before damping. On the assumption that Rex Hedrick would normally have been playing at level 33,323 (based on typical behaviour), Evan Williams played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.6%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.3% and 1.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rex Hedrick changes to -0.3% and Evan Williams changes to +1.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rex Hedrick becomes -0.1% and for Evan Williams becomes +0.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA New Zealand International Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rex Hedrick: 86%, Evan Williams: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rex Hedrick: 84%, Evan Williams: 83%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Rex Hedrick: 33,926, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Evan Williams: 26,448, level confidence: 83%.