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Rex Hedrick v Sean Conroy (Sat 08 Jun 2019)

Match won by Rex Hedrick. Result: 8-11,11-4,11-3,11-3.

Starting level for Rex Hedrick: 34,257, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for Sean Conroy: 18,347, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Rex Hedrick to win as he is currently playing 87% better than Sean Conroy.

Rex Hedrick won 75% of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 95% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rex Hedrick played 48% better than Sean Conroy in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Rex Hedrick was taking it easy by anything up to 10%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 27,627 and 34,257 without affecting his level.

As Rex Hedrick has played below his allowed range at 27,406, his level reduction is 0.8% before damping. On the assumption that Rex Hedrick would normally have been playing at level 30,764 (based on typical behaviour), Sean Conroy played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.4%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.6% and 4.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rex Hedrick changes to -0.6% and Sean Conroy changes to +4.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rex Hedrick becomes -0.2% and for Sean Conroy becomes +1.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA New Zealand International Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rex Hedrick: 84%, Sean Conroy: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rex Hedrick: 75%, Sean Conroy: 77%.

Final level for Rex Hedrick: 34,178, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Sean Conroy: 18,644, level confidence: 77%.