Stu Lord v Marcus Hayes (Mon 03 Jun 2019)
Match won by Marcus Hayes. Result: 11-4,2-11,5-11,6-11.
Starting level for
Stu Lord:
4,792, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Marcus Hayes:
8,134, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Marcus Hayes to win as he is currently playing
70% better than Stu Lord.
Marcus Hayes won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 54% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Marcus Hayes played
35% better than Stu Lord in this match.
As Marcus Hayes has played below his allowed range at 6,600, his level reduction is 2.3% before damping. On the assumption that Marcus Hayes would normally have been playing at level 7,515 (based on typical behaviour), Stu Lord played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.9%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.8% and 6% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Marcus Hayes changes to -1.6% and Stu Lord changes to +6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Marcus Hayes becomes -0.9% and for Stu Lord becomes +2.7%.
Given Marcus Hayes's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 23% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Warwickshire Summer League 2019' so the adjustment for Marcus Hayes is -0.5% and for Stu Lord is +1.7%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Marcus Hayes: 88%, Stu Lord: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Marcus Hayes: 79%, Stu Lord: 76%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Stu Lord:
4,867, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Marcus Hayes:
8,085, level confidence: 79%.