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Gregoire Marche v James Willstrop (Sun 02 Jun 2019)

Match won by Gregoire Marche. Result: 11-4,11-9,11-2.

Starting level for Gregoire Marche: 48,781, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for James Willstrop: 45,664, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Gregoire Marche to win as he is currently playing 7% better than James Willstrop.

Gregoire Marche won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Gregoire Marche played 120% better than James Willstrop in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Gregoire Marche actually played at a level of 70,004 and James Willstrop at a level of 31,820. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 44% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Gregoire Marche changes to +42% and James Willstrop changes to -24%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Gregoire Marche becomes +7.3% and for James Willstrop becomes -4.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Montpellier Metropole Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Gregoire Marche is limited to +5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Gregoire Marche: 76%, James Willstrop: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Gregoire Marche: 53%, James Willstrop: 65%.

A final adjustment of +0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Gregoire Marche: 51,243, level confidence: 53%.
Final level for James Willstrop: 43,872, level confidence: 65%.