Miguel Rodriguez v Diego Elias (Sun 02 Jun 2019)
Match won by Miguel Rodriguez. Result: 10-12,13-11,11-5,11-9.
Starting level for
Miguel Rodriguez:
48,946, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Diego Elias:
55,999, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Diego Elias to win as he is currently playing
14% better than Miguel Rodriguez.
Miguel Rodriguez won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 22% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Miguel Rodriguez played
24% better than Diego Elias in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Miguel Rodriguez actually played at a level of
58,272 and Diego Elias at a level of
47,037. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Miguel Rodriguez changes to +16% and Diego Elias changes to -18%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Miguel Rodriguez becomes +3.4% and for Diego Elias becomes -3.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Internacional Sporta Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Miguel Rodriguez: 90%, Diego Elias: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Miguel Rodriguez: 76%, Diego Elias: 72%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Miguel Rodriguez:
50,528, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Diego Elias:
54,244, level confidence: 72%.