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Diego Elias v Alfredo Avila (Sat 01 Jun 2019)

Match won by Diego Elias. Result: 3-11,11-7,11-7,12-10.

Starting level for Diego Elias: 56,806, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for Alfredo Avila: 32,268, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Diego Elias to win as he is currently playing 76% better than Alfredo Avila.

Diego Elias won 75% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 6% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Diego Elias played 19% better than Alfredo Avila in this match.

As Diego Elias has played below his allowed range at 42,644, his level reduction is 11% before damping. On the assumption that Diego Elias would normally have been playing at level 51,948 (based on typical behaviour), Alfredo Avila played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 16%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.5% and 12% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Diego Elias changes to -7.4% and Alfredo Avila changes to +12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Diego Elias becomes -1.9% and for Alfredo Avila becomes +2.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Internacional Sporta Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Diego Elias: 90%, Alfredo Avila: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Diego Elias: 74%, Alfredo Avila: 69%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Diego Elias: 55,774, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Alfredo Avila: 33,315, level confidence: 69%.