Robertino Pezzota v Yahya Elnawasany (Fri 31 May 2019)
Match won by Robertino Pezzota. Result: 11-6,11-5,11-5.
Starting level for
Robertino Pezzota:
28,426, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Yahya Elnawasany:
16,235, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Robertino Pezzota to win as he is currently playing
75% better than Yahya Elnawasany.
Robertino Pezzota won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Robertino Pezzota played
106% better than Yahya Elnawasany in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Robertino Pezzota actually played at a level of
30,852 and Yahya Elnawasany at a level of
14,958. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.5% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.4% and 6.4% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Robertino Pezzota changes to +6.2% and Yahya Elnawasany changes to -6.4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Robertino Pezzota becomes +1.8% and for Yahya Elnawasany becomes -2.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Paraguay Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Robertino Pezzota: 89%, Yahya Elnawasany: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Robertino Pezzota: 82%, Yahya Elnawasany: 81%.
A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Robertino Pezzota:
28,950, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Yahya Elnawasany:
15,899, level confidence: 81%.