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Chris Simpson v Mahesh Mangaonkar (Fri 31 May 2019)

Match won by Chris Simpson. Result: 11-5,5-11,8-11,11-8,11-9.

Starting level for Chris Simpson: 37,246, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mahesh Mangaonkar: 37,416, level confidence: 93%. Set manually.
Mahesh Mangaonkar to win as he is currently playing 0% better than Chris Simpson.

Chris Simpson won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 5% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Simpson played 9% better than Mahesh Mangaonkar in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Simpson actually played at a level of 38,910 and Mahesh Mangaonkar at a level of 35,816. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.5% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Simpson changes to +4.5% and Mahesh Mangaonkar changes to -3.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Simpson becomes +1.4% and for Mahesh Mangaonkar becomes -1.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Montpellier Metropole Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Simpson: 90%, Mahesh Mangaonkar: 96%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Simpson: 86%, Mahesh Mangaonkar: 92%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Simpson: 37,776, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Mahesh Mangaonkar: 36,993, level confidence: 92%.