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Gregoire Marche v Olli Tuominen (Fri 31 May 2019)

Match won by Gregoire Marche. Result: 11-5,11-3,11-4.

Starting level for Gregoire Marche: 45,276, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for Olli Tuominen: 30,751, level confidence: 56%.
Gregoire Marche to win as he is currently playing 47% better than Olli Tuominen.

Gregoire Marche won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Gregoire Marche played 175% better than Olli Tuominen in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Gregoire Marche actually played at a level of 61,877 and Olli Tuominen at a level of 22,501. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 37% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 29% and 29% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Gregoire Marche changes to +26% and Olli Tuominen changes to -29%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Gregoire Marche becomes +5.1% and for Olli Tuominen becomes -6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Montpellier Metropole Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Olli Tuominen is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Gregoire Marche: 79%, Olli Tuominen: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Gregoire Marche: 58%, Olli Tuominen: 55%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Gregoire Marche: 47,205, level confidence: 58%.
Final level for Olli Tuominen: 29,389, level confidence: 55%.