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Yahya Elnawasany v Edgar Ramirez (Thu 30 May 2019)

Match won by Yahya Elnawasany. Result: 11-7,11-13,11-4,11-6.

Starting level for Yahya Elnawasany: 16,054, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Edgar Ramirez: 13,899, level confidence: 62%.
Yahya Elnawasany to win as he is currently playing 16% better than Edgar Ramirez.

Yahya Elnawasany won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 47% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Yahya Elnawasany played 32% better than Edgar Ramirez in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Yahya Elnawasany actually played at a level of 17,172 and Edgar Ramirez at a level of 12,994. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Yahya Elnawasany changes to +5.9% and Edgar Ramirez changes to -6.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Yahya Elnawasany becomes +2% and for Edgar Ramirez becomes -2.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Paraguay Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Yahya Elnawasany: 83%, Edgar Ramirez: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Yahya Elnawasany: 77%, Edgar Ramirez: 74%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Yahya Elnawasany: 16,372, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Edgar Ramirez: 13,600, level confidence: 74%.