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Juan Camilo Vargas v Mazen Gamal (Thu 30 May 2019)

Match won by Juan Camilo Vargas. Result: 11-8,11-7,11-4.

Starting level for Juan Camilo Vargas: 29,098, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Mazen Gamal: 28,347, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Juan Camilo Vargas to win as he is currently playing 3% better than Mazen Gamal.

Juan Camilo Vargas won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Juan Camilo Vargas played 74% better than Mazen Gamal in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Juan Camilo Vargas actually played at a level of 37,850 and Mazen Gamal at a level of 21,792. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 30% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Juan Camilo Vargas changes to +30% and Mazen Gamal changes to -26%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Juan Camilo Vargas becomes +6% and for Mazen Gamal becomes -5.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Internacional Sporta Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Juan Camilo Vargas: 83%, Mazen Gamal: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Juan Camilo Vargas: 64%, Mazen Gamal: 67%.

A final adjustment of +1.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Juan Camilo Vargas: 30,673, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Mazen Gamal: 27,714, level confidence: 67%.