Sebastian Bonmalais v Stuart Macgregor (Wed 29 May 2019)
Match won by Sebastian Bonmalais. Result: 6-11,11-4,11-8,9-11,11-9.
Starting level for
Sebastian Bonmalais:
25,051, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Stuart Macgregor:
17,608, level confidence: 56%.
Sebastian Bonmalais to win as he is currently playing
42% better than Stuart Macgregor.
Sebastian Bonmalais won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 12% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Sebastian Bonmalais played
10% better than Stuart Macgregor in this match.
As Sebastian Bonmalais has played below his allowed range at 21,230, his level reduction is 9.2% before damping. On the assumption that Sebastian Bonmalais would normally have been playing at level 24,100 (based on typical behaviour), Stuart Macgregor played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 11%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.7% and 9.4% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Sebastian Bonmalais changes to -5.9% and Stuart Macgregor changes to +9.4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Sebastian Bonmalais becomes -1.8% and for Stuart Macgregor becomes +2.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Montpellier Metropole Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Sebastian Bonmalais: 84%, Stuart Macgregor: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Sebastian Bonmalais: 74%, Stuart Macgregor: 66%.
Final level for Sebastian Bonmalais:
24,597, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Stuart Macgregor:
18,083, level confidence: 66%.