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Yahya Elnawasany v Juan Barreyro (Tue 28 May 2019)

Match won by Yahya Elnawasany. Result: 11-1,11-4,11-8.

Starting level for Yahya Elnawasany: 15,697, level confidence: 31%.
Starting level for Juan Barreyro: 6,858, level confidence: 10%.
Yahya Elnawasany to win as he is currently playing 129% better than Juan Barreyro.

Yahya Elnawasany won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Yahya Elnawasany played 154% better than Juan Barreyro in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Yahya Elnawasany actually played at a level of 16,531 and Juan Barreyro at a level of 6,512. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.3% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.5% and 3.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Yahya Elnawasany changes to +1.1% and Juan Barreyro changes to -3.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Yahya Elnawasany becomes +0.5% and for Juan Barreyro becomes -1.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Paraguay Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Yahya Elnawasany: 56%, Juan Barreyro: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Yahya Elnawasany: 53%, Juan Barreyro: 30%.

Final level for Yahya Elnawasany: 15,776, level confidence: 53%.
Final level for Juan Barreyro: 6,738, level confidence: 30%.