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Thomas Abraham v Michael McLaughlin (Tue 28 May 2019)

Match won by Michael McLaughlin. Result: 11-6,5-11,3-11,11-4,5-11.

Starting level for Thomas Abraham: 5,190, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Michael McLaughlin: 8,969, level confidence: 64%.
Michael McLaughlin to win as he is currently playing 73% better than Thomas Abraham.

Michael McLaughlin won 60% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 23% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Michael McLaughlin played 13% better than Thomas Abraham in this match.

As Michael McLaughlin has played below his allowed range at 6,576, his level reduction is 12% before damping. On the assumption that Michael McLaughlin would normally have been playing at level 8,245 (based on typical behaviour), Thomas Abraham played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 18%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.9% and 14% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Michael McLaughlin changes to -8.9% and Thomas Abraham changes to +14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Michael McLaughlin becomes -3% and for Thomas Abraham becomes +4.7%.

Given Michael McLaughlin's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 28% has been applied to his level change.

Given Thomas Abraham's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 1.5% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Middlesex Mens Summer League 2019' so the adjustment for Michael McLaughlin is -1.5% and for Thomas Abraham is +3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Michael McLaughlin: 80%, Thomas Abraham: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Michael McLaughlin: 65%, Thomas Abraham: 65%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Thomas Abraham: 5,339, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Michael McLaughlin: 8,822, level confidence: 65%.