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Ali Farag v Paul Coll (Sat 25 May 2019)

Match won by Ali Farag. Result: 10-12,11-7,11-4,10-12,11-7.

Starting level for Ali Farag: 77,061, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Paul Coll: 66,612, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Ali Farag to win as he is currently playing 16% better than Paul Coll.

Ali Farag won 60% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 26% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ali Farag played 14% better than Paul Coll in this match.

As Ali Farag has played below his allowed range at 76,109, his level reduction is 0% before damping. On the assumption that Ali Farag would normally have been playing at level 76,653 (based on typical behaviour), Paul Coll played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.4%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ali Farag changes to 0% and Paul Coll changes to +0.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ali Farag becomes -0.1% and for Paul Coll becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA British Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ali Farag: 85%, Paul Coll: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ali Farag: 85%, Paul Coll: 88%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ali Farag: 76,861, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Paul Coll: 66,924, level confidence: 88%.