Leonel Cardenas v Victor Crouin (Fri 24 May 2019)
Match won by Leonel Cardenas. Result: 11-5,4-11,11-9,11-7.
Starting level for
Leonel Cardenas:
27,413, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Victor Crouin:
33,113, level confidence: 66%.
Victor Crouin to win as he is currently playing
21% better than Leonel Cardenas.
Leonel Cardenas won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 16% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Leonel Cardenas played
22% better than Victor Crouin in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Leonel Cardenas actually played at a level of
33,265 and Victor Crouin at a level of
27,288. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Leonel Cardenas changes to +15% and Victor Crouin changes to -19%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Leonel Cardenas becomes +3.6% and for Victor Crouin becomes -4.2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Regatas Resistencia Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Leonel Cardenas: 91%, Victor Crouin: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Leonel Cardenas: 75%, Victor Crouin: 67%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Leonel Cardenas:
28,362, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Victor Crouin:
31,881, level confidence: 67%.