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Sarah-Jane Perry v Nour El Sherbini (Fri 24 May 2019)

Match won by Sarah-Jane Perry. Result: 8-11,14-12,11-7,11-8.

Starting level for Sarah-Jane Perry: 10,483, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Nour El Sherbini: 13,930, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Nour El Sherbini to win as she is currently playing 33% better than Sarah-Jane Perry.

Sarah-Jane Perry won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 16% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Sarah-Jane Perry played 22% better than Nour El Sherbini in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Sarah-Jane Perry actually played at a level of 13,345 and Nour El Sherbini at a level of 10,942. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 27% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 23% and 23% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Sarah-Jane Perry changes to +23% and Nour El Sherbini changes to -23%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Sarah-Jane Perry becomes +6.1% and for Nour El Sherbini becomes -5.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA British Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Sarah-Jane Perry is limited to +4.9% and Nour El Sherbini is limited to -4.5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Sarah-Jane Perry: 85%, Nour El Sherbini: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Sarah-Jane Perry: 67%, Nour El Sherbini: 67%.

A final adjustment of +0.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Sarah-Jane Perry: 10,954, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Nour El Sherbini: 13,540, level confidence: 67%.