Bernat Jaume v Hugo Varela (Thu 23 May 2019)
Match won by Bernat Jaume. Result: 11-5,11-7,11-8.
Starting level for
Bernat Jaume:
30,980, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Hugo Varela:
18,930, level confidence: 64%.
Bernat Jaume to win as he is currently playing
64% better than Hugo Varela.
Bernat Jaume won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Bernat Jaume played
65% better than Hugo Varela in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Bernat Jaume actually played at a level of
31,107 and Hugo Varela at a level of
18,853. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.4% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.3% and 0.3% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Bernat Jaume changes to 0% and Hugo Varela changes to -0.3%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Bernat Jaume becomes +0.1% and for Hugo Varela becomes 0%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Pilatus Indoors - PSA Sekisui Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Bernat Jaume: 91%, Hugo Varela: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Bernat Jaume: 91%, Hugo Varela: 80%.
Final level for Bernat Jaume:
31,011, level confidence: 91%.
Final level for Hugo Varela:
18,903, level confidence: 80%.