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Bernat Jaume v Hugo Varela (Thu 23 May 2019)

Match won by Bernat Jaume. Result: 11-5,11-7,11-8.

Starting level for Bernat Jaume: 30,980, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for Hugo Varela: 18,930, level confidence: 64%.
Bernat Jaume to win as he is currently playing 64% better than Hugo Varela.

Bernat Jaume won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Bernat Jaume played 65% better than Hugo Varela in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Bernat Jaume actually played at a level of 31,107 and Hugo Varela at a level of 18,853. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.4% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.3% and 0.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Bernat Jaume changes to 0% and Hugo Varela changes to -0.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Bernat Jaume becomes +0.1% and for Hugo Varela becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Pilatus Indoors - PSA Sekisui Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Bernat Jaume: 91%, Hugo Varela: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Bernat Jaume: 91%, Hugo Varela: 80%.

Final level for Bernat Jaume: 31,011, level confidence: 91%.
Final level for Hugo Varela: 18,903, level confidence: 80%.