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Mohamed Abouelghar v Gregoire Marche (Thu 23 May 2019)

Match won by Mohamed Abouelghar. Result: 12-10,11-2,11-2.

Starting level for Mohamed Abouelghar: 51,007, level confidence: 54%.
Starting level for Gregoire Marche: 45,641, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Mohamed Abouelghar to win as he is currently playing 12% better than Gregoire Marche.

Mohamed Abouelghar won all of the games and 71% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 143% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Abouelghar played 143% better than Gregoire Marche in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mohamed Abouelghar actually played at a level of 75,191 and Gregoire Marche at a level of 30,961. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 47% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Abouelghar changes to +44% and Gregoire Marche changes to -26%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Abouelghar becomes +7.6% and for Gregoire Marche becomes -5.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA British Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Mohamed Abouelghar is limited to +4.9% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Abouelghar: 74%, Gregoire Marche: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Abouelghar: 50%, Gregoire Marche: 60%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mohamed Abouelghar: 53,521, level confidence: 50%.
Final level for Gregoire Marche: 43,704, level confidence: 60%.