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Fabien Verseille v Mohamed Elsherbini (Wed 22 May 2019)

Match won by Fabien Verseille. Result: 12-10,8-11,2-11,12-10,11-7.

Starting level for Fabien Verseille: 20,547, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mohamed Elsherbini: 36,335, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Mohamed Elsherbini to win as he is currently playing 77% better than Fabien Verseille.

Fabien Verseille won 60% of the games and 48% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 9% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Fabien Verseille played 5% better than Mohamed Elsherbini in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Fabien Verseille actually played at a level of 28,059 and Mohamed Elsherbini at a level of 26,607. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 37% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 26% and 26% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Fabien Verseille changes to +26% and Mohamed Elsherbini changes to -22%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Fabien Verseille becomes +5.9% and for Mohamed Elsherbini becomes -4.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Sekisui Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Fabien Verseille: 85%, Mohamed Elsherbini: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Fabien Verseille: 62%, Mohamed Elsherbini: 68%.

A final adjustment of +1.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Fabien Verseille: 21,747, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Mohamed Elsherbini: 35,560, level confidence: 68%.