Fares Dessouky v Joshua Masters (Wed 22 May 2019)
Match won by Fares Dessouky. Result: 11-5,12-10,11-5.
Starting level for
Fares Dessouky:
53,774, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for
Joshua Masters:
33,148, level confidence: 63%.
Fares Dessouky to win as he is currently playing
62% better than Joshua Masters.
Fares Dessouky won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 70% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Fares Dessouky played
70% better than Joshua Masters in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Fares Dessouky actually played at a level of
55,048 and Joshua Masters at a level of
32,381. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.4% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.9% and 1.9% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Fares Dessouky changes to +1.7% and Joshua Masters changes to -1.9%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Fares Dessouky becomes +0.6% and for Joshua Masters becomes -0.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA British Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Fares Dessouky: 83%, Joshua Masters: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Fares Dessouky: 81%, Joshua Masters: 77%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Fares Dessouky:
53,828, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Joshua Masters:
33,182, level confidence: 77%.