Marwan Elshorbagy v Raphael Kandra (Wed 22 May 2019)
Match won by Marwan Elshorbagy. Result: 6-11,9-11,11-4,11-9,11-8.
Starting level for
Marwan Elshorbagy:
52,072, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Raphael Kandra:
41,624, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Marwan Elshorbagy to win as he is currently playing
25% better than Raphael Kandra.
Marwan Elshorbagy won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 12% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Marwan Elshorbagy played
10% better than Raphael Kandra in this match.
As Marwan Elshorbagy has played below his allowed range at 48,117, his level reduction is 4.7% before damping. On the assumption that Marwan Elshorbagy would normally have been playing at level 51,219 (based on typical behaviour), Raphael Kandra played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.6%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.2% and 5% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Marwan Elshorbagy changes to -3.6% and Raphael Kandra changes to +5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Marwan Elshorbagy becomes -1.2% and for Raphael Kandra becomes +1.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA British Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Marwan Elshorbagy: 90%, Raphael Kandra: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Marwan Elshorbagy: 84%, Raphael Kandra: 79%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Marwan Elshorbagy:
51,444, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Raphael Kandra:
42,336, level confidence: 79%.