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Ali Farag v Mostafa Asal (Wed 22 May 2019)

Match won by Ali Farag. Result: 6-11,11-7,11-7,11-4.

Starting level for Ali Farag: 74,655, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mostafa Asal: 41,666, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Ali Farag to win as he is currently playing 79% better than Mostafa Asal.

Ali Farag won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 34% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ali Farag played 28% better than Mostafa Asal in this match.

As Ali Farag has played below his allowed range at 57,432, his level reduction is 7.6% before damping. On the assumption that Ali Farag would normally have been playing at level 67,915 (based on typical behaviour), Mostafa Asal played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 13%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.6% and 9.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ali Farag changes to -5.6% and Mostafa Asal changes to +8.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ali Farag becomes -1.5% and for Mostafa Asal becomes +2.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA British Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ali Farag: 86%, Mostafa Asal: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ali Farag: 72%, Mostafa Asal: 78%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ali Farag: 73,498, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Mostafa Asal: 42,664, level confidence: 78%.