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Cesar Salazar v Richie Fallows (Tue 21 May 2019)

Match won by Cesar Salazar. Result: 11-9,5-11,11-6,11-4.

Starting level for Cesar Salazar: 38,389, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Richie Fallows: 33,176, level confidence: 54%.
Cesar Salazar to win as he is currently playing 16% better than Richie Fallows.

Cesar Salazar won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 27% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Cesar Salazar played 26% better than Richie Fallows in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Cesar Salazar actually played at a level of 39,987 and Richie Fallows at a level of 31,850. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.2% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Cesar Salazar changes to +3.1% and Richie Fallows changes to -3.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Cesar Salazar becomes +1.2% and for Richie Fallows becomes -1.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA British Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Cesar Salazar: 82%, Richie Fallows: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Cesar Salazar: 78%, Richie Fallows: 71%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Cesar Salazar: 38,732, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Richie Fallows: 32,901, level confidence: 71%.