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Campbell Grayson v Nicolas Mueller (Tue 21 May 2019)

Match won by Campbell Grayson. Result: 7-11,11-7,6-11,11-9,11-5.

Starting level for Campbell Grayson: 36,001, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Nicolas Mueller: 39,287, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Nicolas Mueller to win as he is currently playing 9% better than Campbell Grayson.

Campbell Grayson won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 7% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Campbell Grayson played 9% better than Nicolas Mueller in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Campbell Grayson actually played at a level of 39,308 and Nicolas Mueller at a level of 35,982. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.2% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Campbell Grayson changes to +8.8% and Nicolas Mueller changes to -7.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Campbell Grayson becomes +2.2% and for Nicolas Mueller becomes -1.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA British Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Campbell Grayson: 81%, Nicolas Mueller: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Campbell Grayson: 74%, Nicolas Mueller: 82%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Campbell Grayson: 36,790, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Nicolas Mueller: 38,596, level confidence: 82%.