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Tom Richards v Nathan Lake (Tue 21 May 2019)

Match won by Tom Richards. Result: 4-11,16-14,11-8,6-11,11-9.

Starting level for Tom Richards: 39,558, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for Nathan Lake: 33,318, level confidence: 59%.
Tom Richards to win as he is currently playing 19% better than Nathan Lake.

Tom Richards won 60% of the games and 48% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 10% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Richards played 5% better than Nathan Lake in this match.

As Tom Richards has played below his allowed range at 36,898, his level reduction is 5.3% before damping. On the assumption that Tom Richards would normally have been playing at level 39,209 (based on typical behaviour), Nathan Lake played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.8%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Richards changes to -4.1% and Nathan Lake changes to +5.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Richards becomes -1.4% and for Nathan Lake becomes +1.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA British Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Richards: 84%, Nathan Lake: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Richards: 79%, Nathan Lake: 72%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tom Richards: 39,022, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Nathan Lake: 33,892, level confidence: 72%.